Abstract: Following on from our first piece on ICOs in September 2017, which focused on the team members and advisors, in this report we work with TokenAnalyst to track the Ethereum balances of the ICO projects over time. We look at the amount of Ethereum raised and the US$ value of the gains and losses caused by changes in the Ethereum price, for each project. We conclude that rather than suffering because of the recent fall in the value of Ethereum, at the macro level, the projects appear to have already sold almost as much Ethereum as they raised (in US$ terms). Of the Ethereum still held by the projects, even at the current c$230 price, projects are still sitting on unrealised gains, rather than losses.
Please click here to download the pdf version of this report
Ethereum raised by 222 ICOs – Macro analysis
| ETH | US$m | |
| ETH raised by EOS | 7,211,776 | 3,824 |
| ETH raised by other projects | 7,972,003 | 1,639 |
| Total ETH raised | 15,183,779 | 5,463 |
| ETH sold by EOS | (7,211,776) | (3,892) |
| ETH transferred out/sold by other projects | (4,113,345) | (1,560) |
| Total ETH transferred out/sold | (11,325,121) | (5,452) |
| ETH Balance remaining (Sept 2018) | 3,858,659 | 830 |
(Source: Ethereum Blockchain, BitMEX Research, TokenAnalyst, Token Data, Price data from Etherscan)
Overall profits & losses caused by changes in the price of Ethereum – US$ million
| Realised gains | |
| EOS project gains | 68 |
| Gross realised ETH gains by other projects | 692 |
| Gross realised ETH losses by other projects | (34) |
| Net realised gains | 727 |
| Unrealised gains | |
| EOS unrealised gains | n/a |
| Gross unrealised ETH gains | 403 |
| Gross unrealised ETH losses | (311) |
| Net unrealised gains | 93 |
| Total net gains | 819 |
(Source: Ethereum Blockchain, BitMEX Research, TokenAnalyst, Token Data, Price data from Etherscan)
Notes:
- This analysis only considers the Ethereum balances of the ICO projects, which we have tracked on the Ethereum blockchain. Funds raised in currencies other than Ethereum are not considered nor is the balance of the new token created by the project. Our reported totals are therefore lower than some other sources. Therefore while our figures may be an underestimate, one at least has a degree of assurance that the balance is calculated independently of the project. At the same time we are missing several projects such as Tron, as we have not identified a treasury address or an address cluster.
- The estimate of the value of Ethereum raised is calculated by taking the highest value of Ethereum inside the address cluster of each project at any point in time (with the exception of EOS). This will result in some inaccuracies.
- The estimate of the value of US$ raised is calculated by using the average ETH price during the ICO period. This should therefore be considered as a rough and unreliable estimate.
- The estimate for the realised gains was calculated by taking the month end Ethereum balance for the address cluster of each project every month and then looking at the reduction in the Ethereum holdings. The average Ethereum price for each month was then used to estimate the US$ value of Ethereum that was sold. This is likely to be inaccurate and it is possible the project retains ownership of the Ethereum or that the Ethereum was not sold for US$.
- While we believe our estimates at the macro level may be reliable, at the individual project level our figures are likely to be unreliable. We apologise for any errors or inappropriate assumptions.
Commentary on the overall Ethereum holdings and sales
The Ethereum price has fallen almost 85% from the US$1,400 peak price in around December 2017. As we mentioned back then, the value of Ethereum and the associated crypto-currencies was high and there was significant downside risk. The large fall in the value of Ethereum led some to question if there could be a “downward price spiral” due to the concentrated Ethereum holdings of the ICO projects. The theory being that many ICO projects were sitting on a large treasure trove of Ethereum and that as the price of Ethereum fell, these projects were going to “panic sell’, fearful of being the last project holding their Ethereum bags.
